Track record · closed signal

Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from November 13, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 11, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

UBER price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$92.88 Published $111.46 Target $71.01 Window close $94.06 Peak
$90.20 – $92.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$92.88Published — price the day we called it
$111.46Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$94.06Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$71.01Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 7% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$94.06
peak on November 13, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+1.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$71.01
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
November 13, 2025 – February 11, 2026

The thesis — published November 13, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$111.46
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$90.20 – $92.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$92.88
published November 13, 2025
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Uber's share price has slipped even though the business is getting stronger. Investor interest remains healthy, and steady product updates keep riders engaged. This week's Uber Ski adds a timely winter option that can lift trips and orders. Over the next 0-3 months, better profits and rising mobility could help shares move back toward prior highs if buying picks up and trading settles.

Primary drivers

  • Price dipped recently, yet investor mood remains positive and supportive
  • New Uber Ski feature for winter can boost rides and customer activity
  • Profitability is improving, with costs and pricing trending in a better mix
  • Room to rebound if the market stays friendly to growing companies

How it played out

UBER: target was not reached

Lyra published UBER at $92.88 on 2025-11-13 with expected growth of 20%. The target was $111.46. The thesis pointed to a recent price dip, healthy investor interest, Uber Ski as a winter product update, improving profitability, rising mobility, and room for a rebound if buying picked up.

Inside the window, UBER peaked at $94.06 on 2025-11-13, a 1.3% gain. It stayed below the $111.46 target and never reached it. By 2026-02-11, it ended at $71.01. The thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-26, Uber and WeRide expanded robotaxi service in Abu Dhabi to fully driverless vehicles. On 2026-02-04, Uber reported fourth-quarter results, and its stock fell after the report.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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