Track record · closed signal

UP Fintech Holding Limited (Tiger Brokers) (TIGR) — closed signal from November 13, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 11, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TIGR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$10.17 Published $13.22 Target $8.36 Window close $11.35 Peak
$9.85 – $10.15Entry zone — fair-value band
$10.17Published — price the day we called it
$13.22Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$11.35Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$8.36Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 39% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$11.35
peak on January 6, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+11.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$8.36
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
November 13, 2025 – February 11, 2026

The thesis — published November 13, 2025

Predicted growth
+30%
over the measurement window
Target price
$13.22
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$9.85 – $10.15
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$10.17
published November 13, 2025
Confidence
74%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Strong data and an improving price setup point to upside. The recent average price trend is still soft, but investor mood is very positive and the business looks solid, so the stock could catch up as risks calm down. External nods like Zacks Rank #2 and being a top-rated U.S.-listed China stock add confidence. Over the next 0-3 months, steadier trading and activity could help the shares bounce from recent levels.

Primary drivers

  • Solid business results combined with very strong, positive investor mood today
  • Recent third-party praise: Zacks Rank #2 and a top-rated China stock
  • Recent average price is leveling out, hinting the stock may be stabilizing
  • As trading calms to a steadier pace, the stock has room to rebound

How it played out

TIGR: target missed after an 11.6% peak gain

Lyra published TIGR at $10.17 on Nov 13, 2025, with expected growth of 30%. The thesis pointed to solid business results, very positive investor mood, recent third-party praise, a leveling average price, and steadier trading and activity as support for a rebound over 0-3 months.

During the window, TIGR peaked at $11.35 on Jan 6, 2026, a 11.6% gain. It stayed below the $13.22 target and never reached it. By Feb 11, 2026, it ended at $8.36. The thesis partially played out in direction at the peak, but it missed the published target and finished below the publication price.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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