Track record · closed signal

UiPath Inc. (PATH) — closed signal from November 12, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 10, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

PATH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$14.25 – $14.85Entry zone — fair-value band

$14.63Published — price the day we called it

$18.73Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$19.84Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$12.95Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 23 days.

Peak price

$19.84

peak on December 8, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+35.6%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$12.95

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

Window

November 12, 2025 – February 10, 2026

The thesis — published November 12, 2025

Predicted growth

+28%

over the measurement window

Target price

$18.73

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$14.25 – $14.85

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$14.63

published November 12, 2025

Confidence

62%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

The stock has fallen hard and may rebound soon, while news and investor mood are quite positive. The company says subscription sales (ARR) rose 11%, and existing customers are spending a bit more overall (108% retention), which suggests the business is steady even though profits are weak. The trend still leans down, so treat this as short-term and higher risk: start small on dips, and only add if price action clearly improves. Watch corporate IT budgets.

Primary drivers

Big drop may be overdone, while investor sentiment stays strong for a rebound.
ARR up 11% and customers spend a bit more, showing a steady, resilient base.
Volume has been higher than usual, pointing to renewed buyer interest.
Key risks: weak profits and companies trimming software budgets soon.

How it played out

PATH: target reached in 23 days

Lyra published PATH on 2025-11-12 at 14.63 with expected growth of 28% and a target of 18.73. The thesis pointed to a hard prior drop that might have been overdone, positive investor mood, ARR up 11%, 108% retention, heavier volume, and the risk that weak profits and tighter software budgets could still weigh on the stock.

Inside the window, PATH rose above the target. It peaked at 19.84 on 2025-12-08, with a peak gain of 35.6%, and reached the target in 23 days. By 2026-02-10 it ended at 12.95. The published short-term rebound thesis played out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All PATH signals