Track record · closed signal

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) — closed signal from November 12, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 10, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

UNH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$334.17 Published $375.09 Target $273.22 Window close $357.87 Peak
$325.61 – $335.47Entry zone — fair-value band
$334.17Published — price the day we called it
$375.09Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$357.87Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$273.22Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 55% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$357.87
peak on January 23, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+7.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$273.22
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
November 12, 2025 – February 10, 2026

The thesis — published November 12, 2025

Predicted growth
+13%
over the measurement window
Target price
$375.09
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$325.61 – $335.47
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$334.17
published November 12, 2025
Confidence
64%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

UnitedHealth looks beaten down and investor mood is gloomy, which can set up a short-term rebound. Markets perked up on optimism about a government reopening, and Clearway Health naming a new CEO kept healthcare in the news. Start with small buys while it is weak, then add only if the trend improves. Headlines about rules and payments could still derail a 3-month bounce.

Primary drivers

  • Price seems pushed too low, and improving mood could fuel a rebound
  • Steady cash coming in from healthcare plans can anchor a recovery
  • New CEO news at Clearway Health keeps attention on the healthcare space
  • Possible negatives: changing rules and payment news can hit the shares

How it played out

UNH: rebound fell short of the target

Lyra published UNH at $334.17 on 2025-11-12, with 13% expected growth and a $375.09 target. The thesis pointed to a beaten-down price, gloomy investor mood, possible rebound support from better market mood, steady healthcare-plan cash flow, Clearway Health CEO news keeping healthcare in view, and risks from rules and payment headlines.

Inside the window, UNH rose but did not reach the target. It peaked at $357.87 on 2026-01-23, a 7.1% gain. It never got there. By 2026-02-10, it ended at $273.22. The thesis partially played out, then failed to hold.

What happened during the window

On Jan. 27, 2026, MarketWatch reported that UnitedHealth had guided 2026 revenue above $439 billion and adjusted earnings per share of at least $17.75. The same report said the company reported fourth-quarter revenue of $113.2 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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