Alphabet Inc. (Class C) (GOOG) — closed signal from July 14, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 12, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 46 days.
The thesis — published July 14, 2025
When you buy Alphabet you get a stake in search, YouTube, Android, and a cloud business that has just turned profitable. Even after a strong run, the stock trades at under 24 times next year’s expected earnings, cheaper than many tech peers. Star investor Bill Ackman raised his fund’s holding to 14%, showing faith. Shares may slip toward $178-181 before 25 July earnings, and ongoing buybacks add support, making it a three-month idea.
Primary drivers
- Bill Ackman’s fund owning 14% of its portfolio in GOOG shows big-money confidence
- Market surveys and price action place GOOG near the very top of large-cap performers
- New Gemini AI lets Google charge more for ads, and the Cloud unit is now turning a profit
- Late-July results and ongoing share buybacks could both nudge the price higher soon
How it played out
GOOG: target reached in 46 days
Lyra published GOOG at 181.03 on 2025-07-14 as a short-term idea with 18% expected growth. The thesis pointed to Alphabet's search, YouTube, Android, and cloud exposure, cloud profit, a valuation under 24 times next year's expected earnings, Bill Ackman's fund holding 14% in GOOG, late-July results, buybacks, and Gemini-related ad pricing power.
Inside the window, the stock reached the 213.29 target in 46 days. It kept rising to a 256.53 peak on 2025-09-19, with a 41.7% peak gain. It ended the window at 237.34. The thesis played out clearly.
What happened during the window
On 2025-07-23, Alphabet reported second-quarter results, including revenue of $96.43 billion and Google Cloud revenue of $13.62 billion. On 2025-09-30, MarketWatch reported that GOOG rose 37% during the third quarter of 2025.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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