Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc. (Class C) (GOOG) — closed signal from July 14, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 12, 2025 — +31.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOG price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$181.03 Published $213.29 Target $237.34 Window close $256.53 Peak
$177.45 – $180.44Entry zone — fair-value band
$181.03Published — price the day we called it
$213.29Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$256.53Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$237.34Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 46 days.

At window close
+31.1%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+41.7%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$237.34
last close inside the window, ended October 12, 2025
Peak price
$256.53
peak on September 19, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
46

The thesis — published July 14, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$213.29
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$177.45 – $180.44
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$181.03
published July 14, 2025
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

When you buy Alphabet you get a stake in search, YouTube, Android, and a cloud business that has just turned profitable. Even after a strong run, the stock trades at under 24 times next year’s expected earnings, cheaper than many tech peers. Star investor Bill Ackman raised his fund’s holding to 14%, showing faith. Shares may slip toward $178-181 before 25 July earnings, and ongoing buybacks add support, making it a three-month idea.

Primary drivers

  • Bill Ackman’s fund owning 14% of its portfolio in GOOG shows big-money confidence
  • Market surveys and price action place GOOG near the very top of large-cap performers
  • New Gemini AI lets Google charge more for ads, and the Cloud unit is now turning a profit
  • Late-July results and ongoing share buybacks could both nudge the price higher soon

How it played out

GOOG: target reached in 46 days

Lyra published GOOG at 181.03 on 2025-07-14 as a short-term idea with 18% expected growth. The thesis pointed to Alphabet's search, YouTube, Android, and cloud exposure, cloud profit, a valuation under 24 times next year's expected earnings, Bill Ackman's fund holding 14% in GOOG, late-July results, buybacks, and Gemini-related ad pricing power.

Inside the window, the stock reached the 213.29 target in 46 days. It kept rising to a 256.53 peak on 2025-09-19, with a 41.7% peak gain. It ended the window at 237.34. The thesis played out clearly.

What happened during the window

On 2025-07-23, Alphabet reported second-quarter results, including revenue of $96.43 billion and Google Cloud revenue of $13.62 billion. On 2025-09-30, MarketWatch reported that GOOG rose 37% during the third quarter of 2025.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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