Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from November 12, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 10, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$1,014.88 Published $1,165.41 Target $1,025.00 Window close $1,133.95 Peak
$997.07 – $1,022.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$1,014.88Published — price the day we called it
$1,165.41Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$1,133.95Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$1,025.00Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 78% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$1,133.95
peak on January 8, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+11.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$1,025.00
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
November 12, 2025 – February 10, 2026

The thesis — published November 12, 2025

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$1,165.41
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$997.07 – $1,022.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$1,014.88
published November 12, 2025
Confidence
75%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Eli Lilly's stock has been climbing strongly, powered by high demand for its obesity and diabetes medicines. A major bank just raised its price goal to $1,500, adding confidence even after a quick run-up. Possible changes in CVS coverage are worth watching, but growing supply and steady demand still point upward. Best plan: buy small 2-4% dips and look for a steady three-month rise if buying interest remains firm.

Primary drivers

  • Strong price trend supported by steady buying, despite recent quick gains
  • Citi lifted its price goal to $1,500, boosting investor confidence
  • Leading obesity and diabetes drugs are in strong demand and expanding
  • Watch insurance coverage changes and shifts in investor focus across sectors

How it played out

LLY: thesis partly played out but target was missed

Lyra published LLY at $1014.88 on 2025-11-12, looking for 15% growth over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to a strong price trend, steady buying, high demand for obesity and diabetes medicines, a Citi price goal of $1,500, and possible CVS coverage changes as a risk to watch.

Inside the window, LLY rose to a peak of $1133.95 on 2026-01-08, a 11.7% gain. It stayed below the $1165.41 target and never reached it. By 2026-02-10, it ended at $1025. The thesis partly played out, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-04, Eli Lilly reported fourth-quarter profit and revenue above analyst expectations and gave 2026 revenue guidance of $80 billion to $83 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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