Track record · closed signal

Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS) — closed signal from November 12, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 10, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

BROS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$58.75 Published $72.84 Target $56.85 Window close $65.93 Peak
$57.50 – $59.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$58.75Published — price the day we called it
$72.84Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$65.93Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$56.85Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 51% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$65.93
peak on December 18, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+12.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$56.85
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
November 12, 2025 – February 10, 2026

The thesis — published November 12, 2025

Predicted growth
+24%
over the measurement window
Target price
$72.84
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$57.50 – $59.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$58.75
published November 12, 2025
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Dutch Bros shares look strong after good Q3 news: sales grew 25.2% compared to last year, and the company aims to reach 2,029 shops by 2029. Prices have been climbing steadily, and trading has been heavier than normal, showing lots more buyers than usual. In an upbeat market, consider small 1-2% dips and add only if it makes new highs with strong interest. Main risks: a rich price and the chance consumer spending cools over the next few months.

Primary drivers

  • Price trend is strong and steady, showing buyers are in control right now
  • Recent results showed solid sales growth and a plan for 2,029 shops by 2029
  • Investor interest is high, with more trading than usual supporting the move
  • Risks include a rich price tag and the chance that customer demand slows

How it played out

BROS: target was not reached

Lyra published BROS on 2025-11-12 at 58.75 with expected growth of 24%. The target was 72.84. The thesis pointed to a strong price trend, solid recent results, sales growth of 25.2%, a plan for 2,029 shops by 2029, heavier trading, and risks from a rich price and cooler consumer spending.

Inside the window from 2025-11-12 to 2026-02-10, BROS rose to 65.93 on 2025-12-18. That was a 12.2% peak gain, but it stayed below 72.84. It never got there. The stock ended at 56.85. The thesis partially played out, then faded before the window closed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-15, The Sun reported that Clutch Coffee Bar said it was in the process of reaching an agreement for Dutch Bros to acquire Clutch, and that Clutch locations would close as part of the transition.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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