Track record · closed signal

Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) — closed signal from November 12, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 10, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

BLBD price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$51.71 Published $62.57 Target $56.74 Window close $59.92 Peak
$50.50 – $52.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$51.71Published — price the day we called it
$62.57Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$59.92Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$56.74Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 76% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$59.92
peak on February 9, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+15.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$56.74
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
November 12, 2025 – February 10, 2026

The thesis — published November 12, 2025

Predicted growth
+21%
over the measurement window
Target price
$62.57
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$50.50 – $52.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$51.71
published November 12, 2025
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Blue Bird's share price has fallen hard, but interest is strong and its move into electric buses is progressing. Recent coverage cited 14.3 percent sales growth and a 317 percent jump in yearly earnings per share. The next quarter is expected to be solid and could spark interest. Trading can be thin and momentum is weak, so wait for signs of renewed buying. If earnings are clean, a return toward recent average prices in ~3 months is plausible.

Primary drivers

  • Price has dropped sharply, yet investor interest remains high now.
  • Electric school buses offer a long runway for growth ahead.
  • Upcoming earnings report could provide a near-term spark.
  • Risk: thin trading and execution timing can make moves choppy.

How it played out

BLBD: the thesis partially played out

Lyra published BLBD at $51.71 on 2025-11-12, with expected growth of 21 percent and a target of $62.57. The thesis pointed to a sharp prior drop, strong interest, progress in electric buses, 14.3 percent sales growth, a 317 percent jump in yearly earnings per share, and an upcoming earnings report as a possible near-term spark. It also flagged thin trading and weak momentum as risks.

Inside the window, the stock rose but never reached the target. It peaked at $59.92 on 2026-02-09, for a 15.9 percent gain. It ended at $56.74 on 2026-02-10. The call partially played out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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