Track record · closed signal

Bank of America Corporation (BAC) — closed signal from November 12, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 10, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

BAC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$54.16 Published $60.34 Target $55.39 Window close $57.55 Peak
$52.95 – $54.43Entry zone — fair-value band
$54.16Published — price the day we called it
$60.34Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$57.55Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$55.39Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 53% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$57.55
peak on January 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+6.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$55.39
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
November 12, 2025 – February 10, 2026

The thesis — published November 12, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$60.34
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$52.95 – $54.43
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$54.16
published November 12, 2025
Confidence
74%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Investors are turning positive on the stock as the price trend improves and lots more people are buying than usual while interest rates settle down. A strong overall market and hopes for a government reopening could keep money flowing into big banks. The price still looks sensible for the size and strength of the business. Consider buying small dips and adding on new highs if demand stays firm over the next three months.

Primary drivers

  • Positive momentum and a stronger recent average price trend visible
  • Record market levels and hopes for a government reopening bring buyers
  • Stock price looks fair, and its large size adds cost and reach advantages
  • Main risks: unexpected interest-rate moves or borrowers falling behind

How it played out

BAC: the target was not reached

Lyra published BAC at $54.16 on 2025-11-12 with expected growth of 12%. The thesis pointed to positive momentum, a stronger recent average price trend, heavier buying than usual, record market levels, hopes for a government reopening, a fair price, and the scale advantages of a large bank. It also named interest-rate moves and borrowers falling behind as risks.

Inside the window, BAC rose to a peak of $57.55 on 2026-01-05, a 6.3% gain. It stayed below the $60.34 target and never reached it. The signal ended at $55.39 on 2026-02-10. Verdict: partial. The direction was right, but the published target did not play out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-14, Bank of America reported fourth-quarter revenue of $28.4 billion and adjusted earnings of 98 cents a share. The company also said revenue growth was 7%, helped by higher net interest income, asset-management fees, and sales and trading revenue.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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