Track record · closed signal

Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from November 12, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 10, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

UBER price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$93.00 – $96.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$94.80Published — price the day we called it

$112.81Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$95.18Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$73.50Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 2% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$95.18

peak on November 12, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+0.4%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$73.50

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

November 12, 2025 – February 10, 2026

The thesis — published November 12, 2025

Predicted growth

+19%

over the measurement window

Target price

$112.81

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$93.00 – $96.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$94.80

published November 12, 2025

Confidence

75%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Uber's price slid and now looks beaten down, but short-term signs are improving. A new deal with Albertsons adds Uber One perks to 48.7 million shoppers, which could lead to more orders and rides. If the overall market stays steady, a 3-month bounce seems reasonable once buying picks up and the trend turns up. Keep an eye on any new rules from regulators and on overall consumer demand, as both can affect results.

Primary drivers

Price dropped but early signs suggest a short-term turnaround may be forming.
Albertsons adds Uber One perks for 48.7M shoppers, likely boosting activity.
Positive mood and higher-than-usual trading interest could support a rebound.
Key risks are new government rules and softer overall customer spending.

How it played out

UBER: the 19% bounce never arrived

Lyra published UBER at $94.8 on 2025-11-12, looking for 19% growth over the short-term window. The thesis pointed to a beaten-down price, early signs of a turnaround, the Albertsons Uber One perk deal for 48.7 million shoppers, positive mood, and higher-than-usual trading interest. It also named government rules and softer customer spending as risks.

Inside the window, UBER peaked at $95.18 on 2025-11-12, a 0.4% gain. It stayed below the $112.81 target and ended at $73.5 on 2026-02-10. The thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-04, Uber reported fourth-quarter results. Revenue rose 20% to $14.37 billion, while adjusted earnings per share were 71 cents. MarketWatch also reported that Uber gave a lower-than-expected first-quarter earnings forecast that day.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All UBER signals