Track record · closed signal

Walmart Inc. (WMT) — closed signal from November 11, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 9, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

WMT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$102.61 Published $112.64 Target $129.02 Window close $131.79 Peak
$100.59 – $102.58Entry zone — fair-value band
$102.61Published — price the day we called it
$112.64Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$131.79Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$129.02Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 22 days.

Peak price
$131.79
peak on February 9, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+28.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$129.02
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
22
Window
November 11, 2025 – February 9, 2026

The thesis — published November 11, 2025

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$112.64
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$100.59 – $102.58
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$102.61
published November 11, 2025
Confidence
65%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Walmart's share price has pulled back just as the holiday rush begins. On 11-10, it highlighted new AI shopping tools, and the CEO said AI will reshape many jobs, which can lift efficiency. With strong investor mood and a low-looking price vs recent trading, a bounce is plausible. Consider buying small pullbacks with tight limits. Its large online and grocery business can steady results if non-essential spending slows.

Primary drivers

  • Price looks beaten down while investor mood remains supportive now
  • AI tools across stores and apps may improve costs and customer ease
  • Holiday shopping typically lifts sales, aiding near-term demand
  • Company size and groceries can help stabilize results and price

How it played out

WMT: target reached in 22 days

Lyra published WMT at 102.61 on 2025-11-11 with a short-term thesis for 10% growth. The thesis pointed to a pulled-back share price, supportive investor mood, artificial intelligence tools across stores and apps, holiday shopping demand, and Walmart's scale in online sales and groceries as stabilizers.

Inside the window, WMT rose past the 112.64 target in 22 days. It reached a 131.79 peak on 2026-02-09, with a 28.4% peak gain, and ended at 129.02. The published thesis played out. The price did more than the target required.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-14, Walmart announced that Doug McMillon would retire in January 2026 and that John Furner would become chief executive on 2026-02-01. On 2025-12-09, Barron's reported that Walmart had moved its stock listing from the New York Stock Exchange to Nasdaq.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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