Track record · closed signal

HDFC Bank Limited (ADR) (HDB) — closed signal from November 11, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 9, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

HDB price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$36.41 Published $42.96 Target $33.86 Window close $37.35 Peak
$35.80 – $36.60Entry zone — fair-value band
$36.41Published — price the day we called it
$42.96Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$37.35Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$33.86Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 14% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$37.35
peak on November 20, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+2.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$33.86
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
November 11, 2025 – February 9, 2026

The thesis — published November 11, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$42.96
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$35.80 – $36.60
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$36.41
published November 11, 2025
Confidence
85%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

HDFC Bank looks ready for a sensible rebound after a sharp drop. The business is solid, and the recent average price is turning up, while some price signals are still a bit cautious. On 11-10, Zacks rated it a Buy with a Value grade B. On 11-05, AM Best kept strong ratings at its reinsurance unit, supporting financial strength. If markets stay steady, big Indian banks could be valued higher. Currency swings and news remain risks.

Primary drivers

  • Solid bank with steady profits and cautious lending keeps loan losses low
  • Price dropped, but the recent average price is turning upward again now
  • Respected researcher Zacks rates it a Buy with a B grade for value
  • AM Best kept ratings, signaling strong finances and reliable operations

How it played out

HDB: target was not reached

On 2025-11-11, Lyra published a short-term rebound thesis on HDB at $36.41. The expected gain was 18%, with a target of $42.96. The thesis pointed to steady profits, cautious lending, a recent average price turning upward, a Zacks Buy rating with a B value grade, and AM Best ratings at its reinsurance unit.

Inside the window from 2025-11-11 to 2026-02-09, HDB rose only briefly. It peaked at $37.35 on 2025-11-20, a 2.6% gain, and stayed below the target. It ended at $33.86. The rebound thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-17, HDFC Bank reported Q3 standalone net profit of Rs 18,654 crore, up 11% year over year, and net interest income up 6.4%. On 2026-01-14, HDB Financial Services reported Q3 profit after tax of Rs 644 crore, up 36% year over year, and net interest income of Rs 2,285 crore.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Share this receipt

A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All HDB signals