Track record · closed signal

HDFC Bank Limited (ADR) (HDB) — closed signal from November 11, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 9, 2026 — -7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

HDB price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$35.80 – $36.60Entry zone — fair-value band

$36.41Published — price the day we called it

$42.96Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$37.35Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$33.86Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 14% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+2.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.9%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$33.86

last close inside the window, ended February 9, 2026

Peak price

$37.35

peak on November 20, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published November 11, 2025

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$42.96

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$35.80 – $36.60

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$36.41

published November 11, 2025

Confidence

85%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

HDFC Bank looks ready for a sensible rebound after a sharp drop. The business is solid, and the recent average price is turning up, while some price signals are still a bit cautious. On 11-10, Zacks rated it a Buy with a Value grade B. On 11-05, AM Best kept strong ratings at its reinsurance unit, supporting financial strength. If markets stay steady, big Indian banks could be valued higher. Currency swings and news remain risks.

Primary drivers

Solid bank with steady profits and cautious lending keeps loan losses low
Price dropped, but the recent average price is turning upward again now
Respected researcher Zacks rates it a Buy with a B grade for value
AM Best kept ratings, signaling strong finances and reliable operations

How it played out

HDB: target was not reached

On 2025-11-11, Lyra published a short-term rebound thesis on HDB at $36.41. The expected gain was 18%, with a target of $42.96. The thesis pointed to steady profits, cautious lending, a recent average price turning upward, a Zacks Buy rating with a B value grade, and AM Best ratings at its reinsurance unit.

Inside the window from 2025-11-11 to 2026-02-09, HDB rose only briefly. It peaked at $37.35 on 2025-11-20, a 2.6% gain, and stayed below the target. It ended at $33.86. The rebound thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-17, HDFC Bank reported Q3 standalone net profit of Rs 18,654 crore, up 11% year over year, and net interest income up 6.4%. On 2026-01-14, HDB Financial Services reported Q3 profit after tax of Rs 644 crore, up 36% year over year, and net interest income of Rs 2,285 crore.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All HDB signals