Track record · closed signal

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) — closed signal from July 13, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 11, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

UNH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$292.31 – $297.18Entry zone — fair-value band

$300.18Published — price the day we called it

$340.75Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$373.71Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$352.13Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 58 days.

Peak price

$373.71

peak on October 9, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+24.5%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$352.13

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

Window

July 13, 2025 – October 11, 2025

The thesis — published July 13, 2025

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$340.75

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$292.31 – $297.18

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$300.18

published July 13, 2025

Confidence

73%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

The share price is showing signs of recovery right when legal news is loudest. More buyers than usual are stepping in, even with the DOJ looking at the company. Picking up shares around $300 305 could lead to about 15 percent gains if July results ease the legal worry and prove cash is still strong. Because lawsuits are unresolved, we are only watching for now.

Primary drivers

Recent price turn hints at a new rise despite the ongoing legal probe.
Big investors are buying before the earnings release.
Health insurance often stays solid when the wider economy is shaky.
July earnings might shift focus back to steady profit growth.

How it played out

UNH: target reached in 58 days

On July 13, 2025, Lyra published a short-term UNH watch at $300.18, with expected growth of 15% and a target of $340.75. The thesis pointed to a recent price turn, bigger investor buying before earnings, health insurance holding up when the economy was shaky, and July earnings shifting focus back to steady profit growth.

Inside the window, UNH reached the target in 58 days. It peaked at $373.71 on October 9, 2025, with a 24.5% gain. The window ended at $352.13, still above the target. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On July 29, 2025, UnitedHealth reported second-quarter results and restored its 2025 outlook. On July 29, 2025, Axios reported that the company planned remediation actions after medical costs rose in the quarter.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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