Track record · closed signal

Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) — closed signal from November 11, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 9, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

EFC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$12.76 – $13.10Entry zone — fair-value band

$13.24Published — price the day we called it

$14.55Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$14.12Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$12.83Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 55% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$14.12

peak on January 22, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+6.6%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$12.83

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

November 11, 2025 – February 9, 2026

The thesis — published November 11, 2025

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$14.55

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$12.76 – $13.10

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$13.24

published November 11, 2025

Confidence

88%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Ellington reported record cash earnings and sales were up 23.6% from last year. They secured more long-term funding, lowering uncertainty. Price action suggests sellers are tiring and the stock is starting to stabilize, with the recent average price turning up. A generally positive market, steady lending margins, and ongoing loan bundles sold to investors could lift shares toward asset value in 0-3 months. New 11-06 and 11-07 reports back this, and the dividend helps.

Primary drivers

Record cash earnings and higher sales strengthen the business case.
Very strong investor interest and an improving recent average price.
Steady loan bundling and more long-term funding add stability.
A somewhat upbeat market helps keep borrowing and lending margins steady.

How it played out

EFC: thesis partly played out but missed the target

Lyra published EFC at 13.24 on 2025-11-11 with a short-term view for 12% growth. The thesis pointed to record cash earnings, sales up 23.6% from last year, more long-term funding, steady lending margins, loan bundles sold to investors, improving price action, and the dividend. The target was 14.55 inside the 2025-11-11 to 2026-02-09 window.

The stock rose, but not enough. It peaked at 14.12 on 2026-01-22, a 6.6% gain, and stayed below the target. It ended the window at 12.83. The thesis partly played out because there was an advance, but it missed the published target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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