Track record · closed signal

Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from November 11, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 9, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

UBER price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$93.69 Published $114.30 Target $73.91 Window close $95.18 Peak
$92.00 – $94.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$93.69Published — price the day we called it
$114.30Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$95.18Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$73.91Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 7% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$95.18
peak on November 12, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+1.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$73.91
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
November 11, 2025 – February 9, 2026

The thesis — published November 11, 2025

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$114.30
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$92.00 – $94.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$93.69
published November 11, 2025
Confidence
79%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Uber's price looks beaten down, and interest from investors is very high, so a short-term bounce is possible after a mixed quarter. The Nov 11 news about working with NVIDIA to speed up robotaxis and autonomous delivery strengthens the long-term story and near-term buying, even if some near-term signs look weak. If markets stay calm and rates ease, rides, delivery, and ads could be valued higher. Buy dips carefully; rules and pricing are risks.

Primary drivers

  • Price looks beaten down while investor interest remains extremely strong
  • New NVIDIA deal could speed up robotaxis and smarter delivery systems
  • A leading stock that benefits when the broader market mood is positive
  • Short-term weakness managed by buying in steps rather than all at once

How it played out

UBER: target never reached

Lyra published UBER at $93.69 on 2025-11-11 for a short-term window ending 2026-02-09. The thesis expected 22% growth to $114.30. It pointed to a beaten-down price, very high investor interest, the NVIDIA work on robotaxis and autonomous delivery, positive market mood, and step-by-step buying around short-term weakness.

The stock rose only briefly. Its peak was $95.18 on 2025-11-12, a 1.6% gain. It stayed below the $114.30 target and never reached it inside the window. By 2026-02-09, UBER ended at $73.91. The thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-26, Uber and WeRide launched fully driverless robotaxi operations in Abu Dhabi. On 2026-02-04, Uber reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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