Track record · closed signal

Organon & Co. (OGN) — closed signal from November 10, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 8, 2026 — +11.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

OGN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$7.21 – $7.51Entry zone — fair-value band

$7.38Published — price the day we called it

$9.42Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$9.94Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$8.21Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 71 days.

At window close

+11.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+34.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$8.21

last close inside the window, ended February 8, 2026

Peak price

$9.94

peak on January 23, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published November 10, 2025

Predicted growth

+28%

over the measurement window

Target price

$9.42

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$7.21 – $7.51

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$7.38

published November 10, 2025

Confidence

61%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

- Clarify the company story - Summarize recent results - Explain what could move the stock - Lay out a careful buy plan Organon looks set for a short-term recovery after earnings. It beat sales and profit in Q3 but trimmed the full-year outlook after selling the JADA product line. Interest is picking up, with more buyers than usual. A cautious buy near the recent trading area could work if core results stay solid and sentiment holds over the next few months.

Primary drivers

Q3 sales and profit beat, but full-year target was cut after a sale
Early signs of a rebound as more buyers step in than usual
Selling non-core assets could simplify the business and improve focus
Buy in small steps to manage risk if the price moves around

How it played out

OGN: target reached in 71 days

Lyra published OGN at $7.38 on November 10, 2025, with expected growth of 28% and a $9.42 target. The thesis pointed to a Q3 sales and profit beat, a trimmed full-year outlook after the JADA sale, more buyers than usual, non-core asset sales, and buying in small steps because the price could move around.

Inside the window, OGN reached the target. The stock peaked at $9.94 on January 23, 2026, with a 34.8% peak gain, and reached the target in 71 days. It ended the window at $8.21. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On January 19, 2026, Sun Pharmaceutical said reports about a possible Organon acquisition were speculative. On January 20, 2026, The Economic Times reported that Sun Pharmaceutical had submitted a non-binding offer to acquire Organon.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All OGN signals