Bank of America Corporation (BAC) — closed signal from July 13, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 11, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.
The thesis — published July 13, 2025
Bank of America's share price looks worn out after a long slide, just as the company heads into its 7/16 earnings report. Loan losses stay low and the interest it earns from lending has held up better than at other big banks, so profits could beat cautious forecasts. Investor mood is quietly improving, leaving room for the stock to climb toward its spring levels. When a solid bank nears earnings from a weak price, rebounds tend to be fast. A move back there would be about a 14% gain in three months.
Primary drivers
- Past data show that a drop this steep has often led to double-digit gains within three months.
- Earnings on 7/16 could surprise positively because lending income is holding steady.
- Investor surveys show optimism even as the price fell, hinting at quiet buying.
- If the Fed stops hiking rates, loan profits steady and the bank may boost share buybacks.
How it played out
BAC: peak cleared the target, but no target day was recorded
Lyra published BAC at $46.23 on 2025-07-13 with an expected 14% gain over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to a worn-out share price before 7/16 earnings, low loan losses, steady lending income, improving investor mood, and possible room for buybacks if rate pressure eased.
Inside the window, BAC reached a $52.61 peak on 2025-09-23, above the $52.14 target. The data did not record a target day. By 2025-10-11 it ended at $48.40. The thesis mostly played out on price, though the close gave back part of the move.
What happened during the window
On 2025-07-16, Bank of America reported second-quarter profit of $7.1 billion, or $0.89 per share. Revenue was $26.5 billion. MarketWatch reported that profit beat the FactSet estimate of $0.86 per share.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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