Track record · closed signal

Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) (CART) — closed signal from November 9, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 7, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

CART price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$36.75 Published $45.94 Target $34.35 Window close $47.29 Peak
$35.50 – $37.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$36.75Published — price the day we called it
$45.94Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$47.29Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$34.35Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 30 days.

Peak price
$47.29
peak on December 9, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+28.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$34.35
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
30
Window
November 9, 2025 – February 7, 2026

The thesis — published November 9, 2025

Predicted growth
+25%
over the measurement window
Target price
$45.94
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$35.50 – $37.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$36.75
published November 9, 2025
Confidence
63%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Instacart's stock has been calm while buyer interest stays strong. That mix can offer a fair plan to start small and add only if the price proves itself. Helpful news supports the story: the Kroger expansion puts Instacart in front of more shoppers, and the new AI Cart Assistant can make ordering easier and convert more visits into sales. If the economy steadies, consumer tech names like this often get extra attention.

Primary drivers

  • Bigger Kroger tie-up brings Instacart to more stores and more shoppers.
  • AI helper can simplify orders and turn more visits into purchases.
  • Investor interest and buying strength are currently leaning positive.
  • Price has been steady; a strong move could start the next leg higher.

How it played out

CART: target reached in 30 days

Lyra published CART at 36.75 on 2025-11-09, with expected growth of 25%. The thesis pointed to a bigger Kroger tie-up, an artificial intelligence ordering helper, positive buying strength, and a steady price that could support a stronger move.

Inside the window, CART reached the 45.94 target. It peaked at 47.29 on 2025-12-09, with a peak gain of 28.7%, and reached the target in 30 days. By 2026-02-07, it ended at 34.35. The thesis played out on the target, even though the gain did not hold through the window.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-10, Instacart reported third-quarter results. Revenue was 939 million, total orders were 83.4 million, and gross transaction value was 9.17 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All CART signals