Track record · closed signal

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) — closed signal from November 9, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 7, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

PLTR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$177.93 Published $231.31 Target $135.90 Window close $198.88 Peak
$174.00 – $178.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$177.93Published — price the day we called it
$231.31Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$198.88Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$135.90Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 39% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$198.88
peak on December 22, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+11.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$135.90
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
November 9, 2025 – February 7, 2026

The thesis — published November 9, 2025

Predicted growth
+30%
over the measurement window
Target price
$231.31
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$174.00 – $178.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$177.93
published November 9, 2025
Confidence
63%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Palantir moves around a lot, and after a big climb it is cooling off. Recent news shows sales in Q3 rose 63% versus last year, showing its AI tools are turning interest into real dollars, though the stock still looks pricey. Many traders have been selling lately, which can set up a better buy-in. But we want proof of buyers returning, especially with noisy headlines still shaking markets.

Primary drivers

  • Q3 sales rose 63% from last year, showing faster demand for Palantir's AI
  • Recent selling pressure may offer a friendlier entry for long-term buyers
  • Seen as a front-runner in AI software, which could keep attracting customers
  • Price is rich, so easing in over time can lower regret if swings continue

How it played out

PLTR: target missed after an 11.8% peak gain

Lyra published PLTR on 2025-11-09 at $177.93, with 30% expected growth. The thesis pointed to Q3 sales up 63% from last year, demand for artificial intelligence software, recent selling pressure, and the need to see buyers return because the stock still looked pricey.

Inside the window, PLTR rose to $198.88 on 2025-12-22. That was an 11.8% peak gain, but it stayed below the $231.31 target. It never got there. By 2026-02-07, the stock ended at $135.90. The thesis partially played out on the initial rise, then missed on the target and finish.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-03, MarketWatch reported that Palantir had announced fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $1.41 billion, up 70% from a year earlier. The article also reported $507 million in U.S. commercial revenue and $570 million in U.S. government revenue.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Share this receipt

A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All PLTR signals