Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) — closed signal from July 13, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 11, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 16 days.
The thesis — published July 13, 2025
AMD shares have risen fast on excitement about its AI chips, but the rise is pausing after Goldman Sachs said the stock is fairly priced. If the price slides to around $138-145, new investors may get a safer entry before the late-July earnings call, when the firm will reveal early MI300 chip sales. Optimism is still strong, so the stock could reach about $175 later this year, yet it stays on the watch list because it already looks expensive.
Primary drivers
- Goldman's neutral view and $140 goal cool hype, letting the stock settle.
- Strong buying mood hints investors will step in after a modest price dip.
- July earnings will reveal the first sales trend of the MI300 AI chip.
- Recent price trend is up even though short-term signals look overheated.
How it played out
AMD: target reached in 16 days
Lyra published AMD at $146.42 with expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to a possible pullback into the $138 to $145 entry zone after Goldman Sachs' neutral view and $140 goal cooled the run. It also pointed to strong buying mood, the late-July earnings call, early MI300 artificial intelligence chip sales, and an uptrend that already looked overheated.
Inside the window, AMD reached the $175.70 target in 16 days. It later peaked at $240.10 on 2025-10-09, a 64% gain from the publication price. The window ended at $214.90. The thesis played out, and then went well past the target.
What happened during the window
On August 5, 2025, AMD reported second-quarter revenue of $7.67 billion and third-quarter guidance between $8.4 billion and $9.0 billion. On October 6, 2025, AMD announced a multi-year agreement with OpenAI for 6 gigawatts of AMD GPUs, with the first 1 gigawatt planned for late 2026.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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