Track record · closed signal

Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) — closed signal from November 9, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 7, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

CAG price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$17.14 Published $19.54 Target $19.35 Window close $20.04 Peak
$16.75 – $17.25Entry zone — fair-value band
$17.14Published — price the day we called it
$19.54Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$20.04Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$19.35Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 87 days.

Peak price
$20.04
peak on February 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+16.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$19.35
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
87
Window
November 9, 2025 – February 7, 2026

The thesis — published November 9, 2025

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$19.54
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$16.75 – $17.25
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$17.14
published November 9, 2025
Confidence
65%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Conagra has lagged, but signs point to a comeback. The company beat expectations last quarter, kept its full-year plan, and says on-time deliveries are back to 98%, which should help profits hold steady. The price trend looks early but is getting healthier, and investors are warming up. If the market starts valuing it more fairly again, the stock could grind higher. Risks: cheaper store brands and higher ingredient costs.

Primary drivers

  • Beat last quarter and kept full-year plan, boosting confidence
  • Operations back on track with 98% on-time deliveries
  • Improving mood among investors helps a stable price base form
  • Low price vs. history could rise as the market revalues it

How it played out

CAG: target reached in 87 days

On 2025-11-09, Lyra published a short-term CAG thesis at $17.14 with expected growth of 14%. The thesis pointed to a prior-quarter beat, a maintained full-year plan, 98% on-time deliveries, better investor mood, and a low price versus history. It also named cheaper store brands and higher ingredient costs as risks.

Inside the window, CAG reached the $19.54 target in 87 days. The stock peaked at $20.04 on 2026-02-05, with a 16.9% peak gain. It ended the window at $19.35. The published thesis played out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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