T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) — closed signal from November 9, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 7, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 37% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published November 9, 2025
T-Mobile looks strong after a healthy dip. It keeps adding about 1 million paying lines and is rolling out new tools for emergency connections, helping it stand out. Investor mood remains positive even though the recent average price has been slipping, hinting at a turn. We prefer starting near the lower price range and adding if the trend improves. Key risks are tougher price competition and how it manages its wireless airwave rights.
Primary drivers
- Gaining more paying phone customers than rivals, showing stronger demand
- Rolling out new emergency connection features that set it apart
- Investors stay upbeat even after a recent dip in the stock
- Strong, steady cash generation could lead investors to value it higher
How it played out
TMUS: target was not reached
Lyra published TMUS at $205.98 on 2025-11-09 with a short-term thesis for 15% growth. The thesis pointed to stronger paying customer additions than rivals, new emergency connection features, upbeat investor mood after a dip, and steady cash generation that could support a higher valuation.
Inside the window, TMUS rose to a peak of $217.25 on 2025-11-17, a 5.5% gain. It stayed below the $235.71 target, so the target was never reached. By 2026-02-07, it ended at $197.39. The thesis partially played out early, then missed the full target.
What happened during the window
On 2025-11-30, Android Central reported that T-Mobile had extended tablet and smartwatch installment plans from 24 months to 36 months. On 2026-01-04, The Sun reported that T-Mobile planned at least six 5G-Advanced features during 2026 and a shift toward the T-Life app.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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