Walmart Inc. (WMT) — closed signal from November 9, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 7, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 26 days.
The thesis — published November 9, 2025
The stock has dipped for a strong, steady retailer, which could set up a near-term bounce. Holiday work with The Salvation Army should boost goodwill and bring more people into stores during the busiest quarter. We also see early signs of stronger interest, with more buyers than usual. Main risks: heavy price competition and higher wages.
Primary drivers
- Big retailer's price dipped, offering a possible short-term entry
- Holiday shopping and a charity partner could lift in-store visits
- More buyers than usual suggest improving interest and near-term stability
- A large grocery business helps steady results even when the economy slows
How it played out
WMT: target reached in 26 days
Lyra published WMT on Nov. 9, 2025 at 102.38. The thesis expected 12% growth. It pointed to a dip in a strong retailer, holiday shopping with a charity partner, more buyers than usual, and a large grocery business that could steady results. It also named price competition and higher wages as risks.
Inside the window, WMT reached the 114.43 target in 26 days. The peak was 131.7 on Feb. 6, 2026, for a 28.6% gain. The stock ended the window at 131.18. The published thesis played out, and the move went beyond the target.
What happened during the window
On Nov. 14, 2025, Walmart said Doug McMillon would retire and John Furner would become president and CEO on Feb. 1, 2026. On Nov. 20, 2025, Walmart reported Q3 fiscal 2026 results and said it would transfer its listing to Nasdaq.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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