Track record · closed signal

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) — closed signal from November 9, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 7, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

MU price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$237.82 Published $297.16 Target $394.69 Window close $455.50 Peak
$229.81 – $237.81Entry zone — fair-value band
$237.82Published — price the day we called it
$297.16Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$455.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$394.69Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 51 days.

Peak price
$455.50
peak on January 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+91.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$394.69
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
51
Window
November 9, 2025 – February 7, 2026

The thesis — published November 9, 2025

Predicted growth
+25%
over the measurement window
Target price
$297.16
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$229.81 – $237.81
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$237.82
published November 9, 2025
Confidence
84%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Micron is riding the buildout of AI data centers, which need lots of memory. Recent reports show the business is getting stronger, with fiscal 2025 sales up 49% and adjusted profits up 537%. Memory prices are firm, lifting margins. The trend is up, so the plan is to buy on pullbacks and consider adding if the stock pushes to new highs. Main risks: rivals add too much supply or the overall market turns cautious.

Primary drivers

  • AI data centers need more memory, lifting demand for Micron's chips
  • Tight supply keeps memory prices firm, helping Micron's profit margins
  • Uptrend backed by strong buying and a rising recent average price signal
  • Recent news shows sales up 49% and adjusted profit up 537%

How it played out

MU: target reached in 51 days

Lyra published MU at 237.82 on 2025-11-09 with a short-term thesis for 25% growth toward 297.16. The thesis pointed to data-center memory demand tied to artificial intelligence, firm memory prices, an uptrend, sales up 49%, and adjusted profit up 537%. It also named supply additions by rivals and a cautious market as risks.

Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 51 days. It later peaked at 455.50 on 2026-01-30, with a 91.5% peak gain. By 2026-02-07, it ended at 394.69, still above the target. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On December 3, 2025, Micron announced it would exit the Crucial consumer business and continue shipments through February 2026. On December 17, 2025, Micron reported fiscal first-quarter 2026 results, including revenue of $13.64 billion and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $4.78.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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