Track record · closed signal

Walmart Inc. (WMT) — closed signal from November 8, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 6, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

WMT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$102.38 Published $112.39 Target $131.18 Window close $131.70 Peak
$101.09 – $102.58Entry zone — fair-value band
$102.38Published — price the day we called it
$112.39Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$131.70Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$131.18Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 25 days.

Peak price
$131.70
peak on February 6, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+28.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$131.18
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
25
Window
November 8, 2025 – February 6, 2026

The thesis — published November 8, 2025

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$112.39
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$101.09 – $102.58
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$102.38
published November 8, 2025
Confidence
60%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Walmart looks like a steady, lower-risk buy after a recent pullback. Shoppers usually spend more heading into the holidays, and the brand stays top of mind thanks to recent community news, which helps awareness even if it does not add much profit. We would start small near the current range and add only if the overall market shows broader strength. Expect a slow, step-by-step climb over the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

  • Pulled back, but buyers remain positive, setting up a steadier rebound path.
  • Holiday shopping usually lifts sales and traffic, helping short-term momentum.
  • Community partnership boosts brand visibility, even if it does not lift profits.
  • Watching costs and pricing power; thinner margins could slow gains.

How it played out

WMT: target reached in 25 days

Lyra published WMT at $102.38 on 2025-11-08 with a 10% expected gain and a $112.39 target. The thesis was simple: a steadier rebound after a pullback, holiday shopping support, added brand visibility from community news, and some caution on costs and pricing power. It expected a slow, step-by-step climb over the next 0-3 months.

Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 25 days. It later peaked at $131.70 on 2026-02-06, with a 28.6% gain. It ended at $131.18. The published thesis played out, and the move went beyond the target.

What happened during the window

On November 14, 2025, Walmart announced that Doug McMillon would retire in January 2026 and that John Furner would become chief executive on February 1, 2026.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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