Track record · closed signal

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) — closed signal from November 8, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 6, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

UNH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$315.74 – $320.67Entry zone — fair-value band

$322.04Published — price the day we called it

$358.28Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$357.87Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$276.65Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price

$357.87

peak on January 23, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+11.1%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$276.65

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

November 8, 2025 – February 6, 2026

The thesis — published November 8, 2025

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$358.28

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$315.74 – $320.67

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$322.04

published November 8, 2025

Confidence

61%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

- Explain the drop and why a rebound is possible - Summarize recent results and dividend - Flag the government probe risk - Outline a patient entry plan UnitedHealth looks beaten down, yet Q3 sales were $113B and the dividend stayed. Its size and cash flow suggest the price could drift back toward normal once the DOJ noise eases. We prefer to start near $320-$325 and add only after the price steadies and climbs more reliably as rate swings calm into year-end.

Primary drivers

Price fell hard recently; big companies like this often rebound over time.
Strong Q3 sales of $113B show the core business is still bringing in money.
Government investigation could spook headlines and shake the price short term.
If interest rate swings calm, investors may feel safer owning insurers again.

How it played out

UNH: rebound came close, then failed by the close

Lyra published UNH at $322.04 on 2025-11-08 with expected growth of 12% toward $358.28. The thesis pointed to a sharp prior drop, Q3 sales of $113B, the dividend staying in place, government investigation risk, and calmer rate swings as reasons a rebound was possible.

Inside the window, UNH rose to $357.87 on 2026-01-23, with a peak gain of 11.1%. It stayed below the target, so the target was never reached. By 2026-02-06, the stock ended at $276.65. The thesis partly played out on the rebound, but it missed the final outcome.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-27, UnitedHealth reported fourth-quarter revenue of $113.2 billion and projected 2026 revenue of more than $439 billion. The same day, CMS proposed a 0.09% payment increase for Medicare Advantage in 2027, according to MarketWatch.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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