Track record · closed signal

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) — closed signal from November 6, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 4, 2026 — -26.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

PLTR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$185.00 – $191.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$190.07Published — price the day we called it

$239.49Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$198.88Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$139.54Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 18% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-26.6%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+4.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$139.54

last close inside the window, ended February 4, 2026

Peak price

$198.88

peak on December 22, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published November 6, 2025

Predicted growth

+26%

over the measurement window

Target price

$239.49

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$185.00 – $191.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$190.07

published November 6, 2025

Confidence

70%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Palantir looks healthier in the near term: price momentum has improved and there are signs that lots more people are buying than usual. A new partnership with Stagwell (Nov 6) brings Palantir's AI into marketing, widening reach beyond government. On the flip side, news of a big short bet can increase swings, and valuation is a risk. Over the next 0-3 months, buy dips and add only after strength confirms demand.

Primary drivers

New Stagwell deal uses Palantir's AI in marketing, opening more customer doors
Price trend looks better, with more buyers stepping in than we saw recently
Sales mix shifting toward businesses, not just government clients over time
High short interest can swing the stock sharply, raising risk

How it played out

PLTR: target was not reached

Lyra published PLTR on 2025-11-06 at $190.07 for a short-term window ending 2026-02-04. The thesis expected 26% growth and pointed to better price momentum, more buyers, a new Stagwell partnership bringing Palantir's artificial intelligence into marketing, a longer shift toward business customers, and high short interest as a swing risk.

Inside the window, PLTR peaked at $198.88 on 2025-12-22, a 4.6% gain. That peak stayed below $239.49, so the target was never reached. By 2026-02-04, it ended at $139.54. The thesis partly caught a small move higher, but it missed the published upside case.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-02, Palantir reported fourth-quarter 2025 results. The Guardian reported $1.41 billion in revenue and $0.25 earnings per share. The Wall Street Journal reported $1.41 billion in revenue and net income of $609 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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