Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (Class B) (BRK-B) — closed signal from July 13, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 11, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 56% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 13, 2025
Shares have dropped much more than they normally do, which often sets the stage for a quick rebound. At the same time, most investors are looking for well-known, sturdy firms, and Berkshire has over $160 billion in cash ready to earn more interest as short-term government bond rates climb. When trade-war headlines hit, money usually moves into big mixed-business groups like this. If the stock simply drifts back toward its recent average price, it could rise about 12 percent in the next three months while the chance of a big drop appears small.
Primary drivers
- Stock is rarely this oversold; past cases bounced 8-12% within a few months.
- High investor demand for safe blue-chip names during tariff worries supports price.
- $168 billion in cash now earns higher interest, lifting profit per share right away.
- Mix of insurance, rail, and energy softens blows from any one shaky corner of the market.
How it played out
BRK-B: the 12 percent target was not reached
Lyra published BRK-B at $475.86 on 2025-07-13 with a short-term thesis for about 12 percent growth. The target was $532.96. The thesis pointed to an oversold setup, demand for sturdy blue-chip names during tariff worries, $168 billion in cash earning higher interest, and a mix of insurance, rail, and energy businesses that could soften pressure from any one area.
Inside the window, BRK-B rose, but it did not reach the target. The peak was $507.66 on 2025-09-05, a 6.7 percent gain. It never got there. The window ended at $489.13 on 2025-10-11. The thesis partially played out.
What happened during the window
On 2025-08-02, Berkshire reported second-quarter operating earnings of $11.16 billion and a $3.76 billion writedown on its Kraft Heinz stake. On 2025-10-02, Berkshire agreed to buy OxyChem from Occidental for $9.7 billion in cash.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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