Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc. (Class A) (GOOGL) — closed signal from November 6, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 4, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOGL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$286.97 Published $335.54 Target $333.04 Window close $349.00 Peak
$283.63 – $287.62Entry zone — fair-value band
$286.97Published — price the day we called it
$335.54Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$349.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$333.04Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 68 days.

Peak price
$349.00
peak on February 3, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+21.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$333.04
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
68
Window
November 6, 2025 – February 4, 2026

The thesis — published November 6, 2025

Predicted growth
+17%
over the measurement window
Target price
$335.54
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$283.63 – $287.62
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$286.97
published November 6, 2025
Confidence
77%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet launched Ironwood on Nov 6, a new AI chip claimed to be over four times faster than the last one, helping it stay ahead of rivals. Many more buyers than usual have been stepping in, and its mix of ads, YouTube, and Cloud helps smooth out bumps. Near term, new products and sustainability partnerships should keep interest steady. The plan is to buy small pullbacks and consider a hold of about 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

  • Ironwood AI chip, over 4x faster, strengthens Google's tech edge
  • Healthy price momentum with more buying than usual lately
  • Ads plus Cloud mix helps results hold up across conditions
  • Sustainability deals boost brand strength and long-term demand

How it played out

GOOGL: target reached in 68 days

Lyra published GOOGL at 286.97 on 2025-11-06 with expected growth of 17% and a target of 335.54. The thesis pointed to Ironwood, an artificial intelligence chip described as over 4x faster, healthier buying than usual, the ads, YouTube, and Cloud mix, and sustainability partnerships.

Inside the window, GOOGL rose to a peak of 349 on 2026-02-03. It reached the target in 68 days. The stock ended the window at 333.04, below the target but still above the publication price. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-04, Alphabet reported Q4 2025 revenue of $113.83 billion. Android Central also reported Google Cloud revenue of $17.66 billion for the quarter.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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