Track record · closed signal

Bank of America Corporation (BAC) — closed signal from November 6, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 4, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

BAC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$53.35 Published $60.50 Target $55.38 Window close $57.55 Peak
$51.46 – $53.20Entry zone — fair-value band
$53.35Published — price the day we called it
$60.50Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$57.55Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$55.38Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 56% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$57.55
peak on January 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+7.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$55.38
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
November 6, 2025 – February 4, 2026

The thesis — published November 6, 2025

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$60.50
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$51.46 – $53.20
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$53.35
published November 6, 2025
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Bank of America set goals for earnings to grow about 12% a year and to keep returns strong, backed by steady cash payouts and AI tools that lower costs. More buyers than usual and a rising recent average price suggest momentum. The stock is easy to trade, so small pullbacks can be chances to add. Loan quality looks steady and interest rates are less jumpy, which helps. Over the next 0-3 months, a gradual revaluation is reasonable.

Primary drivers

  • Company aims for earnings to grow about 12% yearly and returns of 16-18%
  • More buyers than usual and a rising recent average price signal momentum
  • AI tools to cut costs and steady cash returns via dividends and buybacks
  • Interest rates are less jumpy, making bank earnings and payouts steadier

How it played out

BAC: thesis partly played out but target was missed

Lyra published BAC at 53.35 on 2025-11-06 with 14% expected growth and a 60.5 target. The thesis pointed to earnings growth goals of about 12% a year, 16-18% returns, buyer momentum, artificial intelligence cost tools, steady dividends and buybacks, steadier loan quality, and less jumpy interest rates.

Inside the window, BAC rose to 57.55 on 2026-01-05, a 7.9% peak gain. It stayed below the 60.5 target and never reached it. By 2026-02-04, it ended at 55.38. The thesis partly played out because the stock rose, but the published target was missed.

What happened during the window

On Jan. 14, 2026, Bank of America reported adjusted earnings of 98 cents a share on revenue of $28.4 billion for the fourth quarter. The company said revenue growth was 7%, with higher net interest income, asset-management fees, and sales and trading revenue.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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