Track record · closed signal

Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) — closed signal from November 5, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 3, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

HIMS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$45.13 Published $59.57 Target $25.54 Window close $46.82 Peak
$43.50 – $45.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$45.13Published — price the day we called it
$59.57Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$46.82Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$25.54Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 12% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$46.82
peak on November 5, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+3.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$25.54
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
November 5, 2025 – February 3, 2026

The thesis — published November 5, 2025

Predicted growth
+32%
over the measurement window
Target price
$59.57
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$43.50 – $45.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$45.13
published November 5, 2025
Confidence
62%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Shares look temporarily pushed down and could bounce, but profits are getting squeezed and the recent average price trend is weak. News said Q3 sales beat expectations, and the company is talking with Novo Nordisk about offering Wegovy and a pill version of GLP-1 treatments. If that partnership happens, it could be a big deal. We suggest buying in small steps and waiting for proof the slide is ending.

Primary drivers

  • Very oversold reading with very upbeat mood hints at a short-term bounce
  • Talks to offer Wegovy and a pill version of GLP-1 could boost growth
  • Profit margins are getting tighter for now, pressuring near-term results
  • Recent news said Q3 sales were higher than expected, a positive sign

How it played out

HIMS: target missed as shares ended at 25.54

Lyra published HIMS at 45.13 on 2025-11-05 with expected growth of 32%. The thesis pointed to an oversold reading, upbeat mood, talks to offer Wegovy and a pill version of GLP-1 treatments, tighter profit margins, and Q3 sales that news said were higher than expected.

Inside the window, the stock peaked at 46.82 on 2025-11-05, with a peak gain of 3.8%. It stayed below the 59.57 target and never reached it. By 2026-02-03, it ended at 25.54. The bounce thesis missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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