NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from July 13, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 11, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.
The thesis — published July 13, 2025
NVIDIA makes the chips that drive artificial intelligence. Its new Blackwell line already has more orders than it can fill for three years, and sales are running about 90 percent higher than last year. A coming product launch and the next earnings report often spark extra buying, so the price could reach $200-$205 within three months even though the stock has already risen a lot.
Primary drivers
- Demand for new Blackwell chips is so strong supply will stay tight for years.
- Sales up roughly 90 percent and cash flow up 60 percent a year back a high valuation.
- Trading shows steady buying while option prices assume smaller moves than history.
- $4 trillion value grabs headlines and prompts automatic buying from large funds.
How it played out
NVDA: target missed after an 18.6% peak gain
Lyra published NVDA at $164.90 on July 13, 2025, with 22% expected growth and a $201.16 target. The thesis pointed to strong Blackwell demand, sales running about 90 percent higher than last year, cash flow up 60 percent, steady buying, option prices, and the $4 trillion value drawing attention from large funds.
Inside the window, NVDA rose but never reached the target. It peaked at $195.61 on October 10, 2025, for an 18.6% gain, then ended the window at $183.15. The thesis partly played out, but the published target was missed.
What happened during the window
On August 27, 2025, Nvidia reported second-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $46.74 billion and adjusted earnings of $1.05 per share. The company also announced a $60 billion stock buyback. On August 28, 2025, reports said data center revenue was about $41.1 billion, while Nvidia guided for about $54 billion in third-quarter revenue.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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