Track record · closed signal

Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. (HRMY) — closed signal from July 2, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 30, 2025 — -14% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

HRMY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$30.50 – $33.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$32.03Published — price the day we called it

$46.44Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$38.28Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$27.56Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 43% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-14%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+19.5%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+7.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$27.56

last close inside the window, ended September 30, 2025

Peak price

$38.28

peak on August 27, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 2, 2025

Predicted growth

+45%

over the measurement window

Target price

$46.44

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$30.50 – $33.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$32.03

published July 2, 2025

Confidence

92%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Harmony Biosciences shares have fallen hard and now look cheap just as a key research day on July 16 could showcase new sleep-disorder drugs. Main product WAKIX keeps growing sales about 35 percent a year with healthy profits, yet the stock is priced at only five times the earnings forecast for 2026. With most sellers likely finished and an analyst target of $48, a jump back into the mid-$40s within three months seems reasonable.

Primary drivers

July 16 research update could share new drug data, possibly lifting the stock soon.
Low momentum readings suggest the stock has fallen too far and often rebounds fast.
Broker Mizuho still sees a $48 price, about 55 percent higher than today.
The stock is cheap versus future earnings while sales keep growing 35 percent a year.

How it played out

HRMY: the target was not reached

Lyra published HRMY on 2025-07-02 at $32.03, with expected growth of 45 percent over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to the July 16 research update, weak momentum that could rebound, Mizuho's $48 price view, and sales growing 35 percent a year while the stock traded at five times the 2026 earnings forecast.

Inside the window from 2025-07-02 to 2025-09-30, HRMY rose to a peak of $38.28 on 2025-08-27, a 19.5 percent gain. It stayed below the $46.44 target. The stock ended at $27.56. The thesis partially played out on the rebound, but it missed the target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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