Track record · closed signal

Integral Ad Science Holding Corp. (IAS) — closed signal from November 4, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 2, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

IAS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$10.24 Published $11.87 Target $10.34 Window close $10.34 Peak
$9.90 – $10.20Entry zone — fair-value band
$10.24Published — price the day we called it
$11.87Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$10.34Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$10.34Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 6% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$10.34
peak on December 22, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$10.34
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
November 4, 2025 – February 2, 2026

The thesis — published November 4, 2025

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$11.87
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$9.90 – $10.20
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$10.24
published November 4, 2025
Confidence
64%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

IAS is gaining ground by adding its brand safety tools to more big platforms. It just rolled out AI-based measurement for Meta's Threads and is seeing progress with Reddit, which can lift investor mood. If companies bring ad budgets back to normal, near-term gains are possible. Still, worries about cash flow and relying on large platforms mean a careful, step-by-step plan with defined add points and clear exit levels.

Primary drivers

  • New AI tool helps brands avoid risky content on Meta's Threads.
  • Growing partnership with Reddit could bring more ad deals and scale.
  • Price action steady, with recent trend tilting upward but not overheated.
  • If companies resume normal ad budgets, IAS could see improving demand.

How it played out

IAS: target was not reached

Lyra published IAS at $10.24 on 2025-11-04 with expected growth of 16%. The thesis pointed to wider use of brand safety tools on large platforms, artificial intelligence based measurement for Meta's Threads, progress with Reddit, steadier price action, and a possible lift if ad budgets returned to normal.

Inside the window from 2025-11-04 to 2026-02-02, IAS peaked at $10.34 on 2025-12-22. That was a 1% peak gain, but it stayed below the $11.87 target. The stock ended at $10.34. The thesis only partially played out, because the price rose slightly but never got there.

What happened during the window

On December 23, 2025, Integral Ad Science announced the completion of its acquisition by Novacap. The company said the all-cash transaction valued IAS at approximately $1.9 billion, and IAS common stock ceased trading on Nasdaq.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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