Track record · closed signal

Sony Group Corporation (SONY) — closed signal from November 4, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 2, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

SONY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$27.79 Published $31.95 Target $22.10 Window close $30.34 Peak
$27.25 – $28.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$27.79Published — price the day we called it
$31.95Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$30.34Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$22.10Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 61% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$30.34
peak on November 12, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+9.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$22.10
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
November 4, 2025 – February 2, 2026

The thesis — published November 4, 2025

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$31.95
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$27.25 – $28.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$27.79
published November 4, 2025
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Shares have fallen and look ready for a short-term recovery. Buying interest is improving, and gaming news helps: Halo coming to PS5 could draw more players to Sony. Sony also earns from games, music, movies, electronics, and image sensors, with XR gear reaching stores. A 0-3 month rebound is possible, but currency moves and mixed division results argue for easing in and waiting for proof.

Primary drivers

  • Shares look beaten down, and recent news has improved overall mood
  • Halo on PS5 could bring new players and spending into Sony's ecosystem
  • Multiple businesses in games, music, and movies help balance ups and downs
  • Wider in-store access to Sony's XR gear can pull more users into its world

How it played out

SONY: rebound came early but missed the target

Lyra published SONY on 2025-11-04 at $27.79, looking for 15% growth to $31.95 over the short term. The thesis pointed to beaten-down shares, improving buying interest, Halo coming to PS5, Sony's mix across games, music, movies, electronics, and image sensors, and wider in-store access for XR gear.

Inside the window, SONY rose quickly. It peaked at $30.34 on 2025-11-12, with a 9.2% gain, but it stayed below the target. The target was never reached. By 2026-02-02, the price ended at $22.10. The thesis partly played out early, then missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-11, Sony raised its annual earnings forecast after a stronger second quarter. The report cited the Demon Slayer film, image sensors, and a smaller expected tariff drag. On 2025-11-12, MarketWatch reported that SONY rose for a third consecutive session and closed near its prior high.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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