Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) — closed signal from November 4, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 2, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 75% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published November 4, 2025
Broadcom looks like a solid way to benefit from the AI boom, with a near-term window to buy. Recent trading shows lots more people are buying than usual, and the price sits at a level where rebounds often start. AI chips are now the biggest part of its chip sales, and big tech is still spending. Its steady software arm helps balance risks. Gains over the next 0-3 months look reasonable, but size positions carefully.
Primary drivers
- AI-focused chips now form most of Broadcom's chip sales, lifting growth
- Buying interest is stronger than usual, raising chances of near-term gains
- Major cloud firms plan heavy spending on data centers and networking
- Software unit adds steady cash flow to offset more cyclical chip sales
How it played out
AVGO: thesis rose but the target was not reached
Lyra published AVGO at 360 on 2025-11-04 with 20% expected growth and a target of 431.18. The thesis pointed to artificial-intelligence chip demand, stronger-than-usual buying interest, heavy cloud spending on data centers and networking, and steady software cash flow.
Inside the window, AVGO rose to 413.82 on 2025-12-10. That was a 14.9% peak gain, but it stayed below the target. It never got there. By 2026-02-02, the stock ended at 331.11. The thesis partly played out on the rally, then missed on the full target and finish.
What happened during the window
On 2025-12-12, Business Insider reported that Broadcom beat earnings and revenue, projected artificial-intelligence semiconductor revenue would double to $8.2 billion in the next quarter, and reported a $73 billion product backlog over 18 months.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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