Track record · closed signal

Dynex Capital, Inc. (DX) — closed signal from November 4, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 2, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

DX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$12.93 Published $14.13 Target $13.82 Window close $14.93 Peak
$12.37 – $12.65Entry zone — fair-value band
$12.93Published — price the day we called it
$14.13Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$14.93Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$13.82Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 73 days.

Peak price
$14.93
peak on January 28, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+15.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$13.82
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
73
Window
November 4, 2025 – February 2, 2026

The thesis — published November 4, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$14.13
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$12.37 – $12.65
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$12.93
published November 4, 2025
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Dynex earns money by holding mortgages and carefully managing interest-rate risk. The stock looks like it may be starting to turn up after a weak spell, and many investors feel positive. Recent news about growing size and a new NY office suggests steady execution. If interest rates calm down and profit spreads hold, the price could rise gently over the next 0-3 months while paying income, with risk reduced by strong hedging.

Primary drivers

  • Solid core business and careful expansion keep earnings more reliable
  • Reaching a larger size and opening a NY office show steady progress
  • Price action hints at an early upward turn after a weak stretch
  • Many investors feel positive, which can bring in more buyers

How it played out

DX: target reached in 73 days

Lyra published DX at $12.93 on 2025-11-04 with a short-term thesis for 12% expected growth. The thesis pointed to a solid core business, careful expansion, larger scale, a new NY office, early upward price action after a weak stretch, and positive investor sentiment.

Inside the window, DX reached a peak of $14.93 on 2026-01-28, above the $14.13 target. The target was reached in 73 days. The peak gain was 15.4%. By 2026-02-02, the stock ended at $13.82, still above the publication price. The thesis played out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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