Track record · closed signal

CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE) — closed signal from November 4, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 2, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

CTRE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$34.85 Published $38.68 Target $36.41 Window close $38.23 Peak
$33.78 – $34.66Entry zone — fair-value band
$34.85Published — price the day we called it
$38.68Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$38.23Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$36.41Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$38.23
peak on January 9, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+9.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$36.41
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
November 4, 2025 – February 2, 2026

The thesis — published November 4, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$38.68
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$33.78 – $34.66
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$34.85
published November 4, 2025
Confidence
80%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

CareTrust rents properties to senior care operators, and its price trend looks healthier, suggesting a gradual move up. Near-term events include Q3 results on Nov 5 and a Nov 6 call. Bringing a former CEO onto the board should improve oversight. An aging population supports demand, and debt looks clean. If interest rates stay calm, the next 0-3 months could be favorable for the stock.

Primary drivers

  • Earnings on Nov 5 and a Nov 6 call could move the stock in the near term
  • Price trend is improving, showing steady buying interest lately
  • Adding a seasoned former CEO to the board should improve oversight
  • An aging population increases demand for senior care facilities

How it played out

CTRE: rose, but never reached the target

Lyra published CTRE on 2025-11-04 at 34.85. The thesis expected 12% growth and pointed to Q3 results on Nov 5, a Nov 6 call, an improving price trend, a former CEO joining the board, senior care demand, clean debt, and calm interest rates.

Inside the window, CTRE rose to 38.23 on 2026-01-09, a 9.7% peak gain. The target was 38.68, and the stock stayed below it. It ended the window at 36.41. The thesis partially played out, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

CareTrust announced third-quarter results on Nov. 5. The company also acquired 12 skilled nursing facilities and one skilled nursing campus across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions, according to the same report.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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