Track record · closed signal

Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) — closed signal from July 13, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 11, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

BTU price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$15.15 Published $18.81 Target $30.81 Window close $33.20 Peak
$13.82 – $14.80Entry zone — fair-value band
$15.15Published — price the day we called it
$18.81Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$33.20Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$30.81Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 54 days.

Peak price
$33.20
peak on October 9, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+119.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$30.81
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
54
Window
July 13, 2025 – October 11, 2025

The thesis — published July 13, 2025

Predicted growth
+25%
over the measurement window
Target price
$18.81
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$13.82 – $14.80
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$15.15
published July 13, 2025
Confidence
67%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

A new coal-friendly tax law sent the stock up 13 %, yet it is still priced at only half of its usual comparison to earnings, and the company is churning out enough cash to buy back 8 % of its own shares this year. While rapid recent buying may cause bumps along the way, strong interest from option traders and the chance of firmer Asian coal prices during winter could lift the stock toward $20-$22 over the next few months.

Primary drivers

  • New tax law keeps coal in demand in the US, pushing up interest in the stock
  • Strong cash flow lets company buy back shares, making each share more valuable
  • More buyers than sellers and busy options market hint the climb can continue
  • Asia still needs coal for winter, so prices could stay strong in coming months

How it played out

BTU: target reached in 54 days

Lyra published BTU at $15.15 on 2025-07-13 with 25% expected growth and a target of $18.81. The thesis pointed to a coal-friendly tax law, strong cash flow and buybacks, more buyers than sellers, a busy options market, and the chance of firmer Asian coal prices during winter.

Inside the window, BTU reached the target in 54 days. It kept rising and peaked at $33.20 on 2025-10-09, with a 119.2% peak gain. The window ended at $30.81. The published thesis played out and more than reached what it set out to measure.

What happened during the window

On 2025-08-19, Peabody called off its $3.78 billion agreement to buy Anglo American's Australian steelmaking coal operations. Anglo American said it planned to start arbitration and seek damages.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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