Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from November 3, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 1, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$875.32 Published $978.93 Target $1,037.15 Window close $1,133.95 Peak
$857.48 – $872.44Entry zone — fair-value band
$875.32Published — price the day we called it
$978.93Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$1,133.95Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$1,037.15Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 7 days.

Peak price
$1,133.95
peak on January 8, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+29.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$1,037.15
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
7
Window
November 3, 2025 – February 1, 2026

The thesis — published November 3, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$978.93
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$857.48 – $872.44
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$875.32
published November 3, 2025
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Eli Lilly leads in diabetes and weight-loss drugs and just announced a $3B pill factory in the Netherlands to make more medicine, showing it plans to meet very strong demand. The stock has run up, so waiting for small dips can help. The business is solid and investor mood is positive, suggesting steady progress over the next 3 months, while we watch how quickly production ramps and how rivals respond.

Primary drivers

  • Leader in diabetes/weight-loss drugs with more treatments in the pipeline
  • $3B Netherlands plant lifts pill-making capacity to meet demand
  • Strong finances and positive sentiment support continued progress
  • Stable growth profile with clear upcoming company milestones

How it played out

LLY: target reached in 7 days

Lyra published LLY at 875.32 on 2025-11-03 with expected growth of 12% over the short-term window. The target was 978.93. The thesis pointed to Lilly's lead in diabetes and weight-loss drugs, more treatments in the pipeline, a $3B Netherlands pill plant, strong finances, positive sentiment, and clear company milestones.

Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 7 days. It later peaked at 1133.95 on 2026-01-08, with a peak gain of 29.5%. It ended the window at 1037.15. The published thesis played out, and the move went beyond the target.

What happened during the window

On Dec. 10, 2025, Axios reported that Lilly announced a $6B manufacturing plant in Huntsville, Alabama, planned to produce orforglipron.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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