NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from November 3, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 1, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 6% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published November 3, 2025
AWS and OpenAI plan to spend $38B over several years to use huge numbers of Nvidia chips on AWS. That points to strong, steady demand for many quarters. The recent average price is rising, so brief dips may be chances to buy in parts. When price pushes past recent highs, we want to see lots more people buying than usual. Key risks are how quickly Nvidia can ship chips and overall trading conditions.
Primary drivers
- Big AWS-OpenAI $38B plan keeps orders for Nvidia chips coming for years
- Uptrend suggests small price dips could be chances to buy with care
- Major cloud firms keep spending heavily on AI gear, boosting chip demand
- Sales and profits remain strong, backing the case for further growth
How it played out
NVDA: the target was not reached
Lyra published NVDA at $208.16 on 2025-11-03 with an expected 26% short-term rise. The thesis pointed to the AWS and OpenAI $38B plan, steady demand for Nvidia chips, an uptrend, heavy cloud spending on artificial intelligence gear, and strong sales and profits. The target was $262.26.
Inside the window, NVDA peaked at $211.32 on 2025-11-03, a 1.5% gain. That stayed below the target. It ended the window at $191.13 on 2026-02-01. The thesis missed on price. The cited demand case did not turn into the expected move during this measurement period.
What happened during the window
On November 19, 2025, Nvidia reported $57 billion in quarterly revenue and $51.2 billion in data center revenue. The company also guided to $65 billion in revenue for the next quarter.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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