Track record · closed signal

Dynex Capital, Inc. (DX) — closed signal from November 3, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 1, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

DX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$12.27 – $12.56Entry zone — fair-value band

$12.85Published — price the day we called it

$14.16Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$14.93Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$13.88Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 74 days.

Peak price

$14.93

peak on January 28, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+16.2%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$13.88

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

Window

November 3, 2025 – February 1, 2026

The thesis — published November 3, 2025

Predicted growth

+13%

over the measurement window

Target price

$14.16

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$12.27 – $12.56

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$12.85

published November 3, 2025

Confidence

85%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Earnings land this week. Recent updates showed 20% returns this year and a growing investment portfolio, which boosts confidence going into the report. If the company shows that its book value is holding up and its borrowing and investing costs move closer together, the price could rebound. Big swings in interest rates are the main risk. Start small, then add only if management confirms steady book value and better funding costs.

Primary drivers

This week's earnings report could move the stock quickly in either direction
Many buyers lately; price looks beaten down, so a near-term lift is possible
Core business and income look solid compared with similar mortgage REITs
If interest rates calm down, the gap between earn and pay can improve

How it played out

DX: target reached in 74 days

Lyra published DX at $12.85 on 2025-11-03 with 13% expected growth and a $14.16 target. The thesis pointed to earnings that week, recent updates showing 20% returns this year, a growing investment portfolio, steady book value, better funding costs, buyer interest, solid income versus similar mortgage REITs, and calmer interest rates as possible support.

Inside the window, DX reached a $14.93 peak on 2026-01-28, above the $14.16 target. The target was reached in 74 days. The peak gain was 16.2%. It ended the window at $13.88. The published thesis played out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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