Track record · closed signal

AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) — closed signal from November 2, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 31, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

AZN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$82.40 Published $95.58 Target $92.77 Window close $96.51 Peak
$80.50 – $82.20Entry zone — fair-value band
$82.40Published — price the day we called it
$95.58Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$96.51Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$92.77Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 66 days.

Peak price
$96.51
peak on January 7, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+17.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$92.77
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
66
Window
November 2, 2025 – January 31, 2026

The thesis — published November 2, 2025

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$95.58
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$80.50 – $82.20
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$82.40
published November 2, 2025
Confidence
63%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

AZN looks beaten down, and many investors are turning positive. Fresh reports boosted the estimated value of its future medicines, which supports the stock. Falling interest rates make steady healthcare names more attractive. If the price can move back above its recent average price, it lowers the chance of a false start and could set up a 0-3 month bounce, while we keep an eye on trial and drug pricing risks.

Primary drivers

  • Shares look beaten down, yet investor mood is very positive right now
  • Recent news lifted value estimates thanks to confidence in new drugs
  • Lower rates make steady healthcare stocks more attractive for a rebound
  • A move back above the recent average price could kick off the upswing

How it played out

AZN: target reached in 66 days

Lyra published AZN at 82.4 on 2025-11-02 for a short-term window ending 2026-01-31. The thesis expected 16% growth to 95.58. It pointed to shares that looked beaten down, positive investor mood, higher estimates for future medicines, lower rates supporting steady healthcare names, and a move back above the recent average price.

Inside the window, AZN rose to 96.51 on 2026-01-07. That peak was above the 95.58 target, with a peak gain of 17.1%. The target was reached in 66 days. The stock ended the window at 92.77. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-29, AstraZeneca announced plans to invest $15bn in China by 2030, including manufacturing and research and development expansion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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