Track record · closed signal

Oracle Corporation (ORCL) — closed signal from November 2, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 31, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

ORCL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$262.61 Published $315.13 Target $164.58 Window close $265.62 Peak
$255.00 – $262.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$262.61Published — price the day we called it
$315.13Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$265.62Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$164.58Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 6% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$265.62
peak on November 3, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+1.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$164.58
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
November 2, 2025 – January 31, 2026

The thesis — published November 2, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$315.13
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$255.00 – $262.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$262.61
published November 2, 2025
Confidence
65%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Oracle looks temporarily beaten down, yet investor mood is still positive. Big news about companies spending more on AI, plus OpenAI's fast sales growth, points to steady demand for Oracle's cloud and software. Short-term price trends have been weak, but if the stock climbs back above recent average prices, it would signal a turn. The valuation is not at past peaks, so a 0-3 month rebound toward prior highs seems reasonable as interest returns.

Primary drivers

  • Stock looks temporarily sold off, yet overall investor mood is firm
  • AI spending headlines and OpenAI's fast sales growth boost confidence
  • Oracle's cloud and apps should benefit as companies build more AI tools
  • If price rises above recent averages, investors may revalue the shares

How it played out

ORCL: the 20% rebound did not arrive

Lyra published ORCL at 262.61 on 2025-11-02 with an expected 20% short-term rebound. The thesis pointed to a stock that looked temporarily sold off, firm investor mood, artificial intelligence spending headlines, OpenAI's fast sales growth, and possible demand for Oracle's cloud and software.

Inside the window, ORCL peaked at 265.62 on 2025-11-03, a 1.1% gain. It stayed below the 315.13 target and never reached it. By 2026-01-31, the stock ended at 164.58. The thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-12-10, Oracle reported quarterly revenue of $16.1 billion, cloud revenue growth of 34%, and adjusted operating income of $6.7 billion. On 2025-12-11, MarketWatch reported that Oracle's remaining performance obligations were $523 billion, and that Oracle cited new contracts from Meta Platforms and Nvidia.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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