Track record · closed signal

Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) — closed signal from November 2, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 31, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

QCOM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$174.22 – $179.16Entry zone — fair-value band

$179.98Published — price the day we called it

$225.62Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$184.45Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$151.59Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 10% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$184.45

peak on January 6, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+2.5%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$151.59

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

November 2, 2025 – January 31, 2026

The thesis — published November 2, 2025

Predicted growth

+26%

over the measurement window

Target price

$225.62

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$174.22 – $179.16

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$179.98

published November 2, 2025

Confidence

68%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Qualcomm is getting fresh interest thanks to its new AI chips for big servers. The stock jumped 11% on Oct 27. The trend looks healthier, with the recent average price rising and lots more people buying than usual. Phone sales are stabilizing, and the potential customer base for its AI work is growing. With rates easing a bit, investors are less worried about chip stocks, so gains could continue over the next 0-3 months if pullbacks stay mild.

Primary drivers

Uptrend strengthening: recent average price is rising and buyers are active now
News boost: shares jumped 11% after unveiling new AI data-center chips
Upcoming earnings and upbeat investor mood could pull in additional buyers
Expanding beyond phones into faster-growing AI markets and new revenue streams

How it played out

QCOM: target was not reached

Lyra published QCOM at 179.98 on 2025-11-02 with a short-term call for 26% growth. The thesis pointed to new data-center chips, an 11% jump on Oct 27, a healthier trend, active buyers, stabilizing phone sales, and a wider customer base for artificial intelligence work.

Inside the window, QCOM peaked at 184.45 on 2026-01-06, a 2.5% gain. It stayed below the 225.62 target. The window ended with the stock at 151.59. The thesis did not play out in price terms. It never got there.

What happened during the window

On Nov. 5, 2025, Qualcomm reported fiscal Q4 revenue of $11.3 billion, up 10% year over year, according to Android Central. On Jan. 5, 2026, Windows Central reported that Qualcomm unveiled Snapdragon X2 Plus at CES 2026.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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