Track record · closed signal

Dynex Capital, Inc. (DX) — closed signal from November 2, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 31, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

DX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$12.91 Published $13.85 Target $13.88 Window close $14.93 Peak
$12.27 – $12.56Entry zone — fair-value band
$12.91Published — price the day we called it
$13.85Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$14.93Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$13.88Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 68 days.

Peak price
$14.93
peak on January 28, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+15.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$13.88
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
68
Window
November 2, 2025 – January 31, 2026

The thesis — published November 2, 2025

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$13.85
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$12.27 – $12.56
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$12.91
published November 2, 2025
Confidence
85%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

DX is aimed at investors who want steady income with a reasonable chance for a short-term lift. Price action looks weak but is starting to stabilize, and the recent average price is turning up. Recent news shows the company is worth over $1.8B and the stock is up 20% this year, which suggests solid execution and interest. If interest rates keep easing and markets stay calmer, mortgage bond values should hold up, lowering book value risk over the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

  • Price is beaten down, but the recent average price is starting to improve.
  • Solid business setup, and a high dividend attracts income-seeking investors.
  • News: value above $1.8B and up 20% this year points to strong demand.
  • Easing interest rates support mortgage bonds and help protect company value.

How it played out

DX: target reached in 68 days

Lyra published DX on 2025-11-02 at 12.91 as a short-term income and rebound thesis. It expected 10% growth. The thesis pointed to weak price action that was starting to stabilize, a recent average price turning up, a high dividend, value above $1.8B, the stock being up 20% this year, and easing interest rates as support for mortgage bonds.

Inside the window from 2025-11-02 to 2026-01-31, DX rose to a 14.93 peak on 2026-01-28. That cleared the 13.85 target, with a 15.6% peak gain, and it reached the target in 68 days. It ended at 13.88. The thesis played out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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