Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B (BRK-B) — closed signal from November 1, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 30, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 75% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published November 1, 2025
Berkshire looks temporarily beaten down, and when selling cools, its price often drifts back toward a more normal range over the next 1-3 months. Recent news shows it is still doing sizable deals, like a $9.7B purchase of a chemical business from Occidental, and its insurance cash float rose to $174B. Strong cash, a sturdy balance sheet, and many different businesses help limit bigger drops.
Primary drivers
- Price appears washed out while investor mood holds steady, setting up a bounce
- $9.7B deal for an Occidental chemical unit shows active, disciplined buying
- Insurance float at $174B gives low-cost cash to invest in deals and buybacks
- Diversified, steady business often drifts back toward normal after sharp dips
How it played out
BRK-B: target missed after an early rise
Lyra published BRK-B at 477.54 with expected growth of 11%. The thesis pointed to a washed-out price that could bounce when selling cooled, a $9.7B Occidental chemical unit deal, insurance float at $174B, strong cash, a sturdy balance sheet, and diversified businesses that could help limit bigger drops.
Inside the window, the stock rose to 516.85 on 2025-11-28, a peak gain of 8.2%. It stayed below the 530.07 target and never reached it. By 2026-01-30, it ended at 480.53. The thesis partly played out because BRK-B bounced, but the move did not reach the published target.
What happened during the window
On 2025-11-01, Berkshire reported third-quarter operating earnings of $13.5 billion and cash and equivalent holdings of $381.7 billion. The company also reported no stock buybacks during the quarter.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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