Track record · closed signal

Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) — closed signal from October 31, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 29, 2026 — +16.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GILD price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$116.46 – $119.42Entry zone — fair-value band

$119.56Published — price the day we called it

$133.02Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$141.71Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$139.55Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 84 days.

At window close

+16.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+18.5%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.1%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$139.55

last close inside the window, ended January 29, 2026

Peak price

$141.71

peak on January 27, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published October 31, 2025

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$133.02

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$116.46 – $119.42

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$119.56

published October 31, 2025

Confidence

61%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Gilead beat expectations and now thinks HIV sales will grow about 5% this year. Sales of Veklury fell 60% compared to last year, which drags results. The stock looks beaten down and could bounce back as investors see steadier HIV trends over the next 0-3 months. Still, progress in cancer drugs and any pricing news are key. Consider buying in small steps and wait for signs that more buyers are stepping in.

Primary drivers

Company now expects HIV sales to grow about 5% this year.
Shares look beaten down, which can set up a short-term bounce.
Sales of Veklury fell sharply, which weighs on total results.
Big, stable company that can hold up better in choppy markets.

How it played out

GILD: target reached in 84 days

On 2025-10-31, Lyra published GILD at $119.56 with expected growth of 12% and a target of $133.02. The thesis pointed to HIV sales growth of about 5% this year, a stock that looked beaten down, a sharp Veklury sales drop of 60%, and the support of a big, stable company in choppy markets.

Inside the window, GILD reached the target. It peaked at $141.71 on 2026-01-27, with a peak gain of 18.5%, and it took 84 days to get there. The stock ended the window at $139.55. The published thesis played out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All GILD signals