Track record · closed signal

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) — closed signal from October 31, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 29, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

PLTR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$201.53 Published $261.98 Target $151.86 Window close $207.52 Peak
$195.00 – $202.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$201.53Published — price the day we called it
$261.98Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$207.52Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$151.86Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 10% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$207.52
peak on November 3, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$151.86
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 31, 2025 – January 29, 2026

The thesis — published October 31, 2025

Predicted growth
+30%
over the measurement window
Target price
$261.98
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$195.00 – $202.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$201.53
published October 31, 2025
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Palantir's stock has been strong, with lots more people buying than usual. U.S. commercial sales rose 54% compared to last year. Ongoing excitement around AI and positive media talk help demand, and working with NVIDIA supports faster AI rollouts. Because the financials still look stretched, we prefer buying small on brief dips and adding if strength continues, aiming for progress over the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

  • More customers are adopting Palantir's AI tools, especially AIP
  • Stock strength backed by lots more buyers than usual
  • U.S. sales up 54% compared to last year
  • Good news coverage keeps interest and buying active

How it played out

PLTR: thesis missed after a brief 3% peak

Lyra published PLTR at $201.53 on 2025-10-31 with a short-term thesis for 30% growth. The target was $261.98. The thesis pointed to stronger adoption of Palantir's artificial intelligence tools, heavy buyer interest, U.S. sales up 54% compared to last year, and good news coverage keeping interest active.

Inside the window, the stock reached its high quickly but only rose to $207.52 on 2025-11-03. That was a 3% peak gain, and it stayed below the target. By 2026-01-29, PLTR ended at $151.86. The thesis did not play out.

What happened during the window

On Nov. 3, 2025, Palantir reported third-quarter revenue of $1.18 billion and raised its full-year revenue forecast to between $4.396 billion and $4.4 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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