Old National Bancorp (ONB) — closed signal from October 30, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 28, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 83 days.
The thesis — published October 30, 2025
Old National beat expectations last quarter and looks cheaper than many peers, which has improved investor mood. While recent price action is not strong, falling interest rates and solid business results could help the stock slowly move higher. In the next 1-3 months, the team aims for $23-26 as the bank's interest spread and loan quality settle. Main risks: tougher deposit competition and higher loan losses if the economy weakens.
Primary drivers
- Last quarter sales and profit were higher than expected
- Shares may be priced below what the business is worth
- Lower rates can steady the bank's interest spread
- Investor mood is positive even if recent price action is soft
How it played out
ONB: target reached in 83 days
Lyra published ONB at $20.32 on 2025-10-30 with expected growth of 18%. The thesis pointed to last quarter sales and profit being higher than expected, shares that may have been priced below what the business was worth, lower rates that could steady the bank's interest spread, and positive investor mood even though recent price action was soft.
Inside the window, ONB reached the $23.83 target in 83 days. The stock peaked at $24.78 on 2026-01-22, with a 21.9% peak gain. It ended the window at $23.77. The thesis played out on price, even though the final price sat just below the target.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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